Shirt or No Shirt, it’s Putin.

It is amazing to an American to read the Russian news and hear all the varied opinions about Putin’s decision to run for the Presidency—as if there has already been a campaign and an election. But that’s the way it is in Russia—for now. And it will take another generation, at least, to make a change to something like a real democracy.

When I asked a Russian friend, wife of a Russian politician, what her husband thought of the Putin decision, therefore automatic ultimate election, she said, “He’s accepted it.” A perfect Russian answer. If you can’t do anything about it, just accept it and get on with life. Some cast the Putin decision as something approaching Stalinism. In their near-sighted perspective, it is in their best interest to do so, creating a friction and engendering patriotism.  It is unfortunate they can’t stand back and recognize the changes in Russia as they inch along and at least not interfere. Read more »

The Troika Today, Putin, Medvedev, and Luzhkov?

 In Russian politics, there is always the “troika,” like three horses unevenly pulling the sleigh thorough the cold and rugged Russian countryside. I had wondered if or where was the third horse with Putin and Medvedev in their “tandem” harness. The third horse was evidently the mayor of Moscow, Yury Luzhkov. I had overlooked that. I thought Luzhkov was some way permanent in that city. Maybe he still does assume that, even though President Medvedev has sacked him. After all, until, in 2005, when then President Putin eliminated direct gubernatorial elections, Luzhkov had won three elections with majorities of about 80%. Moscow, in many ways, operated as quasi –state.

The troika is a perfect metaphor for the predictable unpredictability of Russian politics, and the future of a man whose wife owns Moscow real estate valued at $2-9 billion in the capital city representing about a quarter of the GDP of the whole country clearly has claim to a seat on the unpredictable  troika. Or does he? Has Medvedev shown his power by pulling the sword on Luzhkov? Or has Putin shown his power by keep his sword sheathed in this affair, letting Medvedev take the action, and maybe the penalty if it “somehow” it was a mistake. We will have to wait and see.

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Russia Burning – to do what?

 The disastrous fires in Russia will soon be over—and then what? I was amazed to hear that the fires had started. I spent six years in Russia, in Moscow winters and summers. Nothing like this has happened before in Russia. What lasting effect these fires will have is open discussion now. Fingers are pointing9, but will they return to counting money soon?

This crisis has presented Prime Minister Putin with a great opportunity to show himself a hero on TV, at the controls (really?) of a BE200 dropping water on the fires, and to pose as master of the situation, and he has done just that. That’s despite Putin himself bearing the brunt of responsibility for Russia’s lack of preparedness for the fires, according to a scathing article in the Moscow business newspaper Vedemosti. It points out that Putin abolished the state forestry service three years ago and scaled back state funding for fire prevention measures. According to the paper, Russia currently spends about 4 cents per hectare of forest lands on fire-fighting services, compared with about $4 in the United States.

The impact of this disaster will be, I think, another weight on the scale of change inching forward in that country of a thousand years of autocratic rule where all change was determined from the top down. The demand for regional elections to choose regional leaders is growing. Putin eliminated regional leadership choice and moved it to the Kremlin. Now the regions want it back. Local control to create local solutions to unforeseen disasters such as the wildfires is one of the reasons argued in favor of this move.  The fire of change has already begun. It will take time.

Buy here  “Walking on Ice, An American Businessman in Russia”

Russian Corruption of Olympic Proportions

  The allegations of extreme corruption in the Russian 2014 Sochi Olympics have got everyone talking, but so far we hear of no corrective action being taken. The media is full of it. The Moscow Times, The Christian Science Monitor and the Novaya Gazeta have covered it well. This speaks of incredibly negative public relations for Russia amidst the world community.

Of course, corruption in the Olympies is not new. But after the efficient and relatively clean Olympics in Vancouver, the mishandling of such a visible international affair as the Winter Olympics forecasts a great loss of prestige for a nation trying to establish itself in as a world leader. As the Christian Science Monitor reported, the Transparency International’s annual corruption perceptions index currently ranks Russia No. 146 out of 180 countries, down from No. 82 a decade ago. A financially corrupt Sochi games will simply highlight that national sickness. And it colors the entire reputation of this honorable historic event. Not much is expected from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s publicized investigation into the affair.

Why would a country’s leadership allow or support such a demeaning thing to happen? The answers may be deep and hard to heal. To some, civil and moral disobedience is not the issue. Getting caught is the offense to avoid. We won’t know the fallout of this for some time. Heads may roll, but pockets will be filled. But, as the Russians often say, “Let’s hope for the best.”