The Troika Today, Putin, Medvedev, and Luzhkov?

 In Russian politics, there is always the “troika,” like three horses unevenly pulling the sleigh thorough the cold and rugged Russian countryside. I had wondered if or where was the third horse with Putin and Medvedev in their “tandem” harness. The third horse was evidently the mayor of Moscow, Yury Luzhkov. I had overlooked that. I thought Luzhkov was some way permanent in that city. Maybe he still does assume that, even though President Medvedev has sacked him. After all, until, in 2005, when then President Putin eliminated direct gubernatorial elections, Luzhkov had won three elections with majorities of about 80%. Moscow, in many ways, operated as quasi –state.

The troika is a perfect metaphor for the predictable unpredictability of Russian politics, and the future of a man whose wife owns Moscow real estate valued at $2-9 billion in the capital city representing about a quarter of the GDP of the whole country clearly has claim to a seat on the unpredictable  troika. Or does he? Has Medvedev shown his power by pulling the sword on Luzhkov? Or has Putin shown his power by keep his sword sheathed in this affair, letting Medvedev take the action, and maybe the penalty if it “somehow” it was a mistake. We will have to wait and see.

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Room 250

Early in my Russian business experience, in 1992 I think it was, I contacted a man high in Yeltsin’s circles and he invited me to his office at five PM, Room 250. It was on a street just down from the then new McDonald’s where young entrepreneurs were taking orders from passing drivers and giving them to their buddies already well positioned in the block-long line for Big Macs.

The nameplate on the office building said it was a children’s book publisher. We got past the guard easily enough who was impressed we were going to Room 250. We went up the stairs to the second floor. There was no Room 250–lots of other numbers, but no 250. We asked a person walking by and he pointed, “Right there.” There was no number on the door and it was not next to 249 or 251 or any number close to 250.  It was one of my first exposures to Russian disinformation.

Inside were two ladies, one in authority and one talking to her boyfriend on the green plastic desk phone. The one in charge told us to come back another time, that Mr. P  had gone to the bank to ask a question. I said I would wait–and I did for over an hour. She put me into his private office to wait and that alone was a lesson. In the corner was a glass covered case of Lenin’s writings which I guessed had never been handled, much less read for many years. Under the glass on his desk were name cards, about twenty of them, different organizations, entities of one sort or another, all with Mr. P’s name on them. My assistant and I sat at the long table and waited. Soon entered another man with an appointment. Then is when I got a good lesson on Russian organization and power.

Mr. K was from Kursk, my assistant said. She could tell by his accent. Mr. K explained that in Russia, the man you see is not the man who “does.”  He said there were twenty military districts and in each–he held up his hand like a puppet master–there are the controllers for that district. And at the end of the strings–he bounced his hand up and down–are the “officials.” He told us not to assume that who we see in the Kremlin was who ran the country and he cocked his head toward the empty desk.

I have never forgotten that lesson. It rang true to Kafka’s “The one who you call is not the one who answers,” and “It is not the official letter, but the unofficial letter that counts.” Indeed, if our elected officials, dealing with this vast and geographically vital country ever read Kafka, they would understand the minds we deal with there. I have been in business there for now over 17 years and while there are two sides to the coin everywhere, in Russia, there are often three.

Excerpted from “Walking on Ice, An American Businessman in Russia”

Russia-Three Sides of the Coin:
A Talk for Society of Commercial Intelligence Professionals (SCIP)

Monday, I gave a talk to the Southern California chapter of SCIP (Society of Commercial Intelligence Professionals) in Long Beach. This is a group of professionals who use their background and training in intelligence gathering for commercial purposes–meaning what is the competition doing and why. I was invited to give a prospective on how to do this in Russia. There are so many myths and misunderstandings about that country I was happy to try to make things a bit clearer. Seventeen years in business in Russia, six in residence, gives me a perspective “from the trenches.”

My message was called “Russia, Three Sides of the Coin.” I wanted to express the underlying cultural foundation that surfaces in often-unexpected ways when dealing with Russians. Much is changing there, but much stays the same. The Cold War memories and James Bond movies fill us with so much drama about it all. One of my sayings is that in Russia there is much secrecy, but no secrets. Also that the basis for success is group loyalty thorough genuine personal relationships, fairness, and strong knowledgeable leadership.

As a primer, I gave a quick glimpse of Russian history beginning in the late 900s including the warring princes of Kiev hiring the Varangian (Viking) prince Ruark to organize them, the choice of Greek Orthodoxy to control the people, and the start of Russia as a nation. The resulting formula for ruling Russia, according to Czar Nicholas I, was “Orthodoxy, Autocracy, Nationality.”

I built a Power Point presentation which included maps illustrating the geographic and resulting religious uniqueness in Russia’s thousand year history and how that impacts the culture even in today’s supposedly borderless world. Maps showed what I call Russia’s “inconvenience of geography” with no natural borders, no free access to the sea, and all rivers running north into the Arctic except the Volga which empties into the land-locked Caspian.

Map of Russia Today

A geopolitical comparison with America shows a natural island of security, two oceans with world class ports, two non-threatening neighbors, productive agricultural land with a river network flowing into the sea, and the center of global communications. Americans take this all for granted, but Russia sees it as the main threat to their “greatness.”

Yet, I pointed out, that Russia and Russians have a lot going for them. Their greatest asset is their “minds,” not their “mines” (meaning their ample natural resources.) Their intelligence, determination, and loyalty impressed me from the start. The proverbial readiness to say “no” I stressed was an opportunity to ask “how” and tap into their amazing resourcefulness. The Russian woman’s search for a “clever” man is her quest for a partner who knows how to get around the “no” of congenital Russian bureaucracy and get the job done.

After the talk, I got some interesting questions. One executive from a major international firm was questioning the value of certain personnel changes between L.A., London, and Moscow. One Russian, a consultant on business in Russia, agreed with my summations and added some interesting historical and other facts.

The audience was terrific, and it was a joy to have been invited by SCIP.